Big Idea

Gold hits all time historic highs adding over $10 Trillion in market cap in the past 1 year showing that investors are still seeking refuge in hard money assets. Bitcoin comes next.

Key Metrics

Exchange Reserves decline lightly: 2,502,870

Last month’s exchange reserves were measured at 2,508,641 showing a decrease of exchange reserves of ~6,000 BTC or ~$660M equivalent of BTC pulled into cold storage. While only a small decline, the trend of declining exchange reserves continues as buyers are pulling Bitcoin into their custody or off exchanges.

September saw Copper / Gold Ratio hits new bottom, again

September saw another drop to new lows in Copper / Gold as gold prices pushed higher. Investors continue to see a flight to gold as the safe have and September was no different. With new lows, we’re seeing investors re-assessing the global landscape and putting their money into gold.

The Copper/Gold ratio is a key macro indicator for industrial manufacturing optimism and growth as copper is a heavily used industrial commodity. When the Copper/Gold ratio is low, it means Gold price is increasing relative to gold, indicating investors are risk off and saving more. When copper price increases relative to gold, it signals additional manufacturing & industrial demand and growth optimism.

Bitcoin Realized Price steadily climbs: $53,874

September realized price ticks up another ~$1.2k from August’s realized price of $52,682. Bitcoin realized price is the average price that each coin last moved at on the network. This value tends to set the floor and mirrors the 200wma, but indicates Bitcoin holders willingness to move and spend Bitcoin.

Bitcoin realized price has also signaled previous peaks when the realized price reaches peak price of previous cycle. For this cycle, realized price would need to reach ~$69k to signal the peak of the last cycle.

September Global Liquidity Expands by another ~$1.5T

Global Liquidity has reached ~$111T from August of ~$109.5T an increase in $1.5 trillion. As global liquidity increase, stemming primarily from central banks dropping interest rates and creating new money, asset prices tend to move respectively.

This below graph shows Global Liquidity shifted 12 weeks with a Bitcoin correlation of >0.9.

Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) ticks up by only 2 points

September RSI is ending at 69 from 67 with an increase of ~2 points which correlates with the sideways movement in Bitcoin for September. Anything over 50 is still considered “bull” market territory.

The Bitcoin Network Hashrate approaches 1.1 zettahash.

In September, the network came very close to crossing the 1.1 zettahash mark with a peak of ~1.095 zettahash. The network added almost 100 exahash in less than a month showing Bitcoin mining companies aggressive growth. For context it took Bitcoin ~10 years to reach it’s first 100 exahash from 2009 - 2019. Now 100 exahash can be added in a single month.

Bitcoin ETFs saw a modest $750M net inflow for September.

This modest inflow corresponds with the generally sideways movement we saw in September, with the slight uptick toward the middle to end of the month. This helps us understand that institutions are still looking for Bitcoin exposure.

Public Company Bitcoin Holdings, August ending at 1,039,274 BTC.

Public companies stacked an additional 38,000 Bitcoin in the last month from 999,000 ending in August. Additionally, the floor to enter the top 100 Public company holders went from 58 last month to now 100 Bitcoin today. This was also only 29 Bitcoin end of July, showing the aggressive accumulation public companies are making toward Bitcoin accumulation.

That’s all for now.

If there are additional metrics that you want to see or think are appropriate to include, please let me know.

Thanks for reading.