Big Idea

November was brutal, but that just gives you a better opportunity to buy more Bitcoin and stack harder.

Key Metrics

Exchange Reserves decline error?: 1,826,377

It seems as though there was a re-adjustment or error in the Exchange Reserve metric, but if it’s accurate, it would seem that from last month of 2,395,985 Bitcoin on exchanges, they have dropped almost 596,608 BTC or ~$48 Billion. That doesn’t seem right, so we’ll keep an eye on that one.

Last month’s exchange reserves came in at 2,395,985 showing a decrease of over 107,000 BTC or ~$11.7B equivalent of BTC pulled off of exchanges. This decrease in supply highlights demand for Bitcoin that is not going to be traded in the near future.

November rose slightly from October’s record low for Copper / Gold Ratio

November saw a slight uptick in the Copper/ Gold ratio from October’s low. Gold is still hovering around $4,200 per oz as investors and central banks see gold as the safe haven and November wasn’t much better.

The Copper/Gold ratio is a key macro indicator for industrial manufacturing optimism and growth as copper is a heavily used industrial commodity. When the Copper/Gold ratio is low, it means Gold price is increasing relative to gold, indicating investors are risk off and saving more. When copper price increases relative to gold, it signals additional manufacturing, industrial demand, and growth optimism.

Bitcoin Realized Price slowly climbing: $56,473

November’s end of month realized price ticks up only ~$600 from October’s realized price of $55,876. Bitcoin realized price is the average price that each coin last moved on the network. This value tends to set the floor and mirrors the 200wma, but indicates Bitcoin holders willingness to move and spend Bitcoin.

Bitcoin realized price has also signaled previous peaks when the realized price reaches peak price of previous cycle. For this cycle, realized price would need to reach ~$69k to signal the peak of the last cycle. However, with the structural institutional buying patterns we’re seeing, no single indicator should be used to determine tops of bottoms.

November Global Liquidity moves sideways

Global Liquidity has stayed at ~$114T from October’s ~$114T. As global liquidity increases, stemming from central banks dropping interest rates (like the most recent 25bps cut by the FED), asset prices tend to move respectively.

This below graph shows Global Liquidity shifted 10 weeks with a Bitcoin correlation of >0.9.

Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) drops 13 points

November RSI is ending at 53 from 66 with a decrease of ~13 points which correlates with the fairly staunch decrease in price action from Bitcoin in November. Anything over 50 is still considered bull market territory.

Network Hashrate fell slightly, but still above 1 ZH

In November, the network came down as unprofitable miners turned off with the recent price reduction. In October, the network came crossed the 1.15 zettahash mark with a peak of ~1.151 zettahash.

Network hashrate is the cummulative compute power that is powering the Bitcoin network ensuring secure transactions and preventing any malicious actors from adversely affecting the Bitcoin network.

Bitcoin ETFs saw a record ~$3.5 Billion net outflow for November.

This modest outflow corresponds with the new November sell off. Investors are taking a risk-off stance and collecting cash going into the holidays.

Public Company Bitcoin Holdings, October ending at 1,061,697 BTC.

Public companies stacked an additional 7,000 Bitcoin in the last month from 1,054,428 BTC ending in September. Additionally, the floor to enter the top 100 Public company holders went by 10% from 119 last month to now 132 Bitcoin today.

From last month: “This entry threshold was only 29 Bitcoin end of July, showing the aggressive accumulation public companies are making toward Bitcoin treasuries.”

That’s all for now.

If there are additional metrics that you want to see or think are appropriate to include, please let me know.

Thanks for reading.

Lucas Bazemore